An Experiment in Conversation
Howdy, Bubba! Hey, if you're new around these parts, I just want to say how much I appreciate you dropping by! Oh, and you may want to subscribe to my feed. Thanks, and a tip o' the hat to ya!
Hey, chances are, if you’re a blogger, or even someone who just enjoys reading blogs, then I’d venture to say you’re probably someone who loves a good conversation. Am I right? (sound of heads nodding)
Speaking for myself, and likely most of the other bloggers I know, the joy of crafting a great post, publishing it, then seeing fascinating folks like you leave comments - well, it’s ‘waaaay more fun than a barrel full of monkeys, I’ll tell ya!
(Although - I’ve never understood why such a thing would be, you know, fun. Insane, maybe; but fun? Not so much.)
So when I wrote Frame of Reference the other day, I sorta expected to see comments. (Hey, I’m nothing if not an optimist.) And I gotta tell ya folks, I was NOT disappointed! Phew, what comments they were!
Now, normally I respond individually to pretty much every comment made here at the Zone. I mean, since you’ve actually made the effort to, you know, rise up from the mists of anonomusnuss anonomusity anonymity, I feel it’s only right that I reply directly to what you have to say. That’s how conversation works, right? And I do, unless I’m really pressed for time (which, alas, happens occasionally).
In this case, though, while I admit to having rather strong feelings about the root causes of our current financial mess, I purposely stayed out of the conversation because I didn’t want to influence your replies in any particular direction. I wanted to see where we ended up.
The fact is, the comments proved so interesting and thought-provoking, well, I felt they deserved to be raised from comment status to full-blown content, if you understand my meanin’. See, it hit me (sound of dull thud) that in fact, the conversation isn’t really over yet.
So bear with me, my friends, as I change into my “mad scientist” outfit, slide down the bat-pole to my secret lab, and try a little experiment here (sound of evil laughter).
If you’ll look a bit farther down, you’ll see I’ve reproduced all the comments (completely unedited except for the occasional spelling error) below that line. Now here’s what I’d like you to do. (Try not to panic; I won’t ask you to do anything really hard like, you know, walk and chew gum at the same time.)
Imagine, if you would, that you’re all gathered in a comfortable room full of easy chairs. Maybe there’s a fireplace blazing cheerily over in the corner, and some really great music is playing in the background. Your feet are propped up and you’ve got your favorite beverage in hand. There’s a lively, and perhaps somewhat animated, discussion going on. There’s only one rule: Be nice.
Now, if you left one of the comments below, then I respectfully ask that you read the rest of ‘em, then leave a new comment, commenting on those comments. (Of course, it may help to reread - or read for the first time - the original post.) C’mon, tell us what you really think! Or, maybe there’s something nobody’s said yet - hey, go ahead and be the first.
And, if you haven’t left a comment yet, then by all means, jump right in and join us. And yes, waving of hands is permitted.
OK, ya got it? Then go!
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Ulla Hennig - I enjoyed reading your article - and I think you are absolutely right in saying that there has to be a frame of reference. Regarding your last question (what is the problem?) I beg your pardon for sitting back and listening to the coming discussion - being not a citizen of the United States nor being economy savvy makes me refrain from actively participating.
[Ulla, I respect your opinion. However, I believe anyone to be qualified to share their thoughts here. Just for the sake of discussion, though, imagine if it were Germany rather than the U.S. that was facing such a conundrum. What would you say then? - Robert]
Brad Shorr - It’s very difficult to get a handle on a long term fix for this one. The media is biased one way or another and inflames the conversation with end-of-the-world rhetoric. Politicians posture by playing the blame game - especially now, being so close to the election. As best I can understand, the “bailout” plan now on the table, designed to take home mortgages of unknown value off the books of lending institutions, is an idea that was proposed many moons ago. So I think the panic is more a timing issue - we were too slow to respond - than a panic caused by not having thought through the issue. Some people, many people, may not like this type of governmental intervention, but it appears that in the few days this bill has been percolating, new provisions have been inserted that make the whole thing more palatable to all constituencies.
Rick Mahn - This certainly is a hot topic right now, and I totally agree that the nation and our leaders are rushing to “fix it” rather than understanding what needs to be fixed. We’ll all learn exactly how we got here eventually, but to fix anything that’s broken, you need to understand what the problem is, what really has to be fixed and then prioritize financially the order in which to address them.
Throwing money blindly at a problem never solves anything. Specific, targeted improvement or correction projects can solve identified issues.
Sure, there are going to be folks who will be hurt by the current economic environment - many of them totally unrelated to the housing, banking, and mortgage industries. This is unfortunate, but isn’t unexpected when a bubble bursts (and big one at that).
I truly wish the mainstream media would be more responsible in reporting on this issue - working harder to bring the back story and the reasons why we’re here. They could work to explain some of the technical jargon of the banking, credit, and finance industries as they talk about different institutions problems. Experts could be educating folks on what goes on in the mortgage industry and how the laws that govern these industries directly affect the products and solutions offered to high-risk customers. They should be doing this instead of fueling the finger-pointing… there’s enough blame to go around, but it hardly matters at this point.
Sorry for the long comment, but like many I’ve got my undervalued $.02 to add to the mix.
Karen Swim - Robert, it’s funny that the economic crisis dovetailed with my own personal crisis and reminded me of exactly what you’ve written today - perspective. We make decisions unable to see the consequences or impact (unless you know we’re God) - we try to assess as far as our mind can see (and that’s not always that far!), assume, plan and prepare but a series of seemingly innocuous decisions can lead to disaster. Then we find ourselves smack dab in the middle of a crisis wondering how we got there. The economic fallout as you noted did not just happen. It did not begin with the present Administration but in my opinion is the result of small actions and decisions that seemed okay when judged in a silo but ultimately contributed to a system crumbling before our very eyes. We may be in a crisis but I do not favor swift political action. I agree that we don’t know the whole story and piling money on has been known to be a poor fix. I mean, didn’t we bail out the airline industry a few years ago. Yea, that worked out really well! The sad, funny thing is that for many years “regular folks” have been suffering. There has been an ever widening gap between the wealth classes, and no one seemed to care. We blamed the poor and accused them of not taking advantage of opportunities or being lazy. I am reminded of Proverbs 29:14, “If a king judges the poor with fairness, his throne will always be secure.” Okay, off my soapbox now! Great discussion Robert!
Laurie Slade - Applying the “butterfly effect” to the current financial “crisis”. Your epiphany in the food court reminded me of a quote I found posted in the Magee Marshland Preserve off Route 2 in Ohio. “When on tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world” - John Muir
I believe this is true in the “civilized” world as well as in nature.
Jean Browman - My husband and I read the Wall Street Journal, so we expected problems like this when we read some companies were using a leverage of 30 to 1. That means they were investing with borrowed money, which gives great profits when the value of the investments go up. It causes a crisis when the values go down. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage (finance) for an explanation of leverage.
William - I really enjoyed reading this article and I think you are absolutely right in saying that there has to be a frame of reference. The economic fallout as you mentioned did not just happen. It did not begin with the present Administration but in my opinion is the result of small actions and decisions that seemed okay when judged in a silo but ultimately contributed to a system crumbling before our very eyes. I think we are in a crisis and I have no idea how to get out of it…..
Karen Putz - The economic crisis is like a noose that keeps getting tighter and tighter as it gets pulled inch by inch. The noose was rather loose at first, but with each economic fall out, the strings closed in. Next thing you know, we’re feeling that noose around our neck.
How to loosen it? Well, inch by inch we have to gently tug it back.
I think it’s going to take a paradigm shift on how we look at credit and borrowing. We’ve got a negative savings rate in the U.S. Time to get back to basics and cutting back - this goes for businesses as well as the rest of us.
Luke Gedeon - While reading the first paragraph of your post, I thought, “He read my blog!” Then I did a reality check. But, anyway. I posted on this yesterday and on Friday.
Should we fire everyone that caused the Great Crash of 2008?
I don’t see this as a problem to be solved. It is an opportunity to be explored.
[UPDATED]
Joanna Young - Hi Robert, liked the frame of reference story. It’s one of the reasons I like to walk - it helps me work out where one thing is in relation to another. When I wrote my book of short walks on Skye - a place I’d been visiting for 20 years - I suddenly realised how one village, island, hill, mountain, headland connected to another. How historical patterns had emerged, why sea transport had been so important in the past, all sorts of things.
Back to your question: it’s a big one. But maybe I’ll stick with walking. We all need to keep our feet a bit more firmly on the ground, drop the idea that buying things will make us happy, learn to live more closely within our means again, and put our energies into building a different sort of world that’s fairer and might have some chance of lasting in the long run.
Just my tuppenceworth ![]()
Ulla Hennig - Our German newspapers are full of articles about the global financial crisis. Obviously not only the United States but also states like Japan and India are hit. As far as I understand (and that is rather limited, I have to admit), the cause of the crisis was nothing else than creed - the urge to make as much money as possible without the real basis for it.
So, in my humble opinion, a bailout only makes sense if it is accompanied by restrictions which will make it impossible for the future to act like this again.
Just my 2 cents
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Some final questions for your consideration: Did reading everyone else’s thoughts cause you to refine your own opinion? Why or why not? If yes, in what way?
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You know, it would just be absolutely finer than a frogs hair if you would subscribe to my RSS feed!
11 responses so far





Hi Robert, Yes, reading the other comments caused me to change, or at least refine, my opinion. I think no matter what we do (or don’t do), there are going to be serious downsides. I now think no matter what we do (or don’t do), we’re still going to feel confused, doubtful, and pessimistic. It’s going to take a looooooooooong time to unravel this big wad of financial muck. On top of that, the Cubs and the White Sox are getting creamed in the playoffs, so TGIF just doesn’t cut it for me today.
Brad Shorrs last blog post..A Hat Tip to Blogs I Read in Silence
Well, Robert. One of the reason why I loved to read and comment on your blog is you a very sincere blog owner, which will try your best to communicate with every commentar, as long as they are not the shameless spammers lol
By the way, where did you got the picture, Robert? It seems a little bit familiar to me here…
@Ulla Hennig - The goings on in America have a huge impact on the rest of the world. Your opinion, while not likely to be heard by the politicians (mine is not either
), is valuable to us, your friends.
@Brad Shorr - I agree that there are going to be some pain coming from this, but in the end it might be a good thing. Mr. Market has been obese for many years. Now that he has been diagnosed with diabetes, he has motivation to start eating right and losing weight. Unfortunately, healthy food does not taste as good, and I am not sure he will start eating right. In which case, all of this really will be a loss. In the mean-time cheer up and enjoy the lower gas price.
@Rick Mahn - Main stream media (MSM) is primarily an entertainment industry. They have to provide entertaining content in order to sell ads which they have to sell to cover the high cost of wide distribution. They cannot afford to do anything but entertain. That is why blogs are so important. Many experts are online explaining how we got into this and how to get out. They are not as easy to find as Channel 5, but they can be found. The most powerful impact of the web is that we have easy access to millions of people who are too smart and too brutally honest to be published or broadcast by the entertainment industry.
@Karen Swim - We have to look a little further back than the airline bailout before deciding that putting more cash in the system will not help. I do agree that the mortgage buyout will other problems in the long run, but money spent in the right places really has helped many times in the past. The trick is to determine the right amount and the right place.
@Laurie Slade - I love the John Muir quote. Thanks for sharing. (MZM, you missed a spelling error in that quote - only mentioned cause it took me a second to figure out what Muir was saying)
@Jean Browman - There have been signs of an impending earthquake for at least 10 years. I thought we were in for it in 2000-2001 and again in 2004. We might end up just delaying it again, but eventually the DJIA needs to get back down to 8,000 or the inflation adjusted equivalent.
@William - Actually they did not seem to be good ideas to everyone at the time, but alas, the majority is generally wrong. But, cheer up, we still have a long way to go before you have less food on your table than the other 80% of the world population. We are still blessed far beyond what we deserve. A lot of really great things could come out of this, including the possibility of Americans becoming a little more sympathetic.
@Karen Putz - Debt is a very important part of making the economy work. As a matter of fact each dollar bill is a piece of government debt. I think people forget that the only way for the government to pay all of its debt is to remove all the money from the economy. We do need to spend less on consumer items, but need to continue or even increase our spending on things that help us make more money. The crises of the Great Depression is that people were too scared to invest in their own or others businesses and farms. So we need to keep spending we just need to be smart about what we buy.
@Luke Gedeon - Wow, you really killed the conversation. That or you were so late to the party that everyone had already left and so Robert had to restart the conversation on a new post. How ’bout you just be quiet this time so people can enjoy the conversation.
Well, Luke it looks like you did it again. Just be quiet for a bit, will ya.
Actually somehow my comment and Joanna Young’s comment were left out in the article - I finally decided to say something, too.
I might repeat it here: The German newspapers are full of articles about the global financial crisis. As far as I understand them (I must admit that my understanding of economic things is a bit limited), the reasons for the crash is greed. Investment bankers have been trying to get as many dollars out as possible without a proper foundation for it. Regarding the bailout my humble opinion is, that if there is a bailout, there should be conditions which prevent the same thing happening again. Otherwise it is just money thrown away.
My two cents
Ulla
Ulla Hennigs last blog post..The Colours of Autumn
Many thanks, y’all, for carryin’ the conversation on this topic while I’ve been totally swamped with, er, other stuff this week. I must say, you guys are pretty smart! One thing that seems to be evident; NOBODY’S happy about the financial mess we’re in! (Well, duh!)
But there’s a couple of things I will say about, though:
1. It ain’t as bad as the what you hear in the Main Stream Media. I’ll tell ya; if you listen to these guys, it’s like the end of the world as we know it. You have to remember these guys need to sell newpapers and advertising, so the more sensational the headlines, the better it is for them. If you’re going to investigate the issue, please bear that in mind.
2. The ultimate root cause is greed, yes. But it’s not just some “faceless fat cats”; believe me, there ’s plenty of it to go around. Sadly, it is finally starting to come out that warnings about this were made as far back as the Clinton administration, but ignored. Not that I’m blaming Dems or Repubs; as I said, there’s plenty of blame to go around.
3. Part of the problem is the misplaced understanding of “rights”. Since when did it become a “right” to own a house? Sure, we can if we can afford it, but I don’t recall that being one of those “inalienable rights” they mentioned in our Constitution.
There’s probably an endless stream of discussion here, but in the meantime, I thank y’all from the bottom of my heart for joining me in the sandbox this week; a big tip o’ the hat to ya! And if you have more to add, by all means keep ‘em comin’!
[...] say hmm… and change the topic. Go ahead and see what the others had to say and reply on the Middle Zone before you read my comments. If you read my comments first you will fall asleep before you get [...]
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This will be short because it looks as if your site lost two comments earlier today. For information about one of the big culprits, credit default swaps, see http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/30/magazines/fortune/varchaver_derivatives_short.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008093012
Jean Browman–Cheerful Monks last blog post..What I Learned From Being Tortured By a Dentist
“Most chillingly, derivatives hold the possibility of systemic risk - the danger that these contracts might directly or indirectly cause some localized or particularized trouble in the financial markets to spread uncontrollably. An imaginable scenario is some deep crisis at a major dealer that would cause it to default on its contracts and be the instigator of a chain reaction bringing down other institutions and sending paroxysms of fear through a financial market that lives on the expectation of prompt payments. Inevitably, that would put deposit-insurance funds, and the taxpayers behind them, at risk.”
Sounds like a good description of what’s going on, doesn’t it? The excerpt is from The Risk That Won’t Go Away, a March 7, 1994 article in Fortune. It’s on the web at http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/25/magazines/fortune/loomis_swamp.fortune/index.htm
Its not as if we hadn’t been warned. Not that we had any say in the matter. I remember reading (skimming, actually!) this article then…and shuddering.
“Like alligators in a swamp, derivatives lurk in the global economy. Even the CEOs of companies that use them don’t understand them.”
—Carol J. Loomis
Have a stout heart….
Jean, thanks for the information. Yes, I remember the big discussions about derivatives and their dangers to the marketplace. Then… nothing. Apparently it all got swept under the rug. Typical. *sigh*
That’s a good image - alligators in a swamp. Might be a good one for all of us to keep in mind when daring to invest.