“As a group, people tend to do things that they know, as individuals, are stupid.” – one of the many corollaries to Murphy’s Law

I was thinking again today about the “group wisdom” threads I’ve been reading over the last few months. In a previous post I mentioned James Surowiecki’s book, “The Wisdom of Crowds“, but didn’t elaborate on it at the time. The premise, supported by considerable evidence, is that crowds can be surprisingly smart. But (and that’s a really BIG “but”), in order to distinguish wise crowds from dumb ones there are certain “key criteria” that must be present.

• Diversity of Opinion: Each person should have private information even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts
• Independence: People’s opinions aren’t determined by the opinions of those around them
• Decentralization: People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge
• Aggregation: Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision (This one is not actually a criteria, but rather a means of harnessing the first three; as such it is essential in order to gain any real information from the crowd.)

(For more details on this book, see the Wikipedia article. What the heck – it’s a good, thought-provoking read – go ahead and buy it.)

There’s plenty of opinions on both sides, of course (do a little research and check out the press this book received immediately after publication), but the more I ponder it, the more I think James got it right – that given the right conditions, groups ARE smart. But here’s where the problems lies – even having read the book, reviewing the evidence, and thinking it through, and yes, even having accepted it as truth – I’m still uncomfortable with the concept. Why should that be?

Okay, okay, maybe you’re thinking, “So he’s not so sure it’s truth after all.” But that’s not it. No, the reason is deeper than that. Could the real reason be – conditioning?

Embedded in our culture is the popular notion that crowds are truly dumb. And there is ample evidence – just view the news any given day for stories of abounding group stupidity, like soccer fans stampeding and trampling each other or massive riots sparked from insignificant incidents. Murphy’s Laws and its many corollaries are so well known and understood that most people accept them as axioms. And that’s the problem. We’ve been conditioned to think that crowds are stupid, dumb things that don’t deserve consideration.

Even when presented with evidence to the contrary, our tendency is to cling to what we hold so dearly. Have you ever had a deeply-held belief that you were forced to give up because of evidence to the contrary? (And by the way, isn’t prejudice a form of conditioning?) Sometimes it’s not easy to start thinking in a new way after having spent so much effort in the old way. It requires some reconditioning of the brain, so to speak. Say to yourself: “Not X, but Y“. Then rinse and repeat.

So what about it? What big idea do you, or did you, struggle with? I’m talkin’ BIG here, not penny-ante stuff. Like, are you a Christian now but were once an avowed Atheist? Were you once a Democrat but now vote Republican? Something else? Or vice verse? C’mon, share a little – we’re all friends here.